NFL Week 5 betting nuggets

A look at the most interesting NFL Week 5 betting nuggets

The nfl week 5 picks are always a popular topic. If you’re looking for the best bets on NFL Week 5, these are some of the best ones that have been released.

When Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs take on Josh Allen and the Bills in Week 5, the biggest over/under of the season will be set. The Chiefs covered for the third time in their past 15 games, including playoffs, last week. Meanwhile, from the start of last season, Buffalo has been the greatest team against the spread (ATS), including having the highest cover margin in 2021.

The New England Patriots face the Houston Texans, with the lowest over/under of the season. It’s the first time since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 that a rookie quarterback has been favored by at least eight points on the road.

The Dallas Cowboys are the only team still undefeated against the spread. When Daniel Jones is a road underdog, the New York Giants are 10-2 ATS.

The Arizona Cardinals, who face the San Francisco 49ers, are the last remaining undefeated club in the league.

Last season, the underdog won both matches on the road. Kyle Shanahan has a 15-9 ATS record as a road underdog with the 49ers in his career. For all 16 Week 5 matches, here are notes and trends.

NFL Observations:

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In Week 4, the underdogs were 8-8 ATS and 6-10 SU; overall, they are 38-26 ATS and 27-37 SU this season.

In Week 4, road teams were 9-7 ATS and 9-7 SU; this season, they are 36-28 ATS and 33-31 SU.

In Week 4, the under was 7-9; this season, the under is 36-28.

ATS Rankings of the Best and Worst Teams

Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET, the New York Jets take on the Atlanta Falcons (-3.5).

• Since the start of last season, New York is 7-13 ATS, including 2-8 ATS on the road. Over that time period, they are tied with Philadelphia for the lowest cover % in the NFL.

• In Week 4, rookie quarterbacks went 4-1 ATS, bringing their season total to 5-11 ATS. Davis Mills was the lone rookie quarterback who did not cover in Week 4 versus Buffalo. When not playing fellow rookie quarterbacks, rookie quarterbacks are 4-10 ATS this season.

• Since the start of last season, Atlanta is 1-5 straight up and ATS as a favorite.

• In London games, favorites are 17-11 ATS.

At 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, the Philadelphia Eagles will face the Carolina Panthers (-4).

• Since the start of last season, Philadelphia is 7-13 ATS and 2-8 ATS on the road, tied with the New York Jets for the lowest cover percentage in the NFL.

• Each of Philadelphia’s past three games, both as a favorite and as an underdog, have gone under the total.

• Since the start of the 2018 season, Philadelphia is 9-17 ATS after a straight-up defeat.

• As a favorite, Carolina has covered three consecutive games (2-0 ATS this season).

The Green Bay Packers (-3.5) will face the Cincinnati Bengals at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

• Since the start of last season, Green Bay has gone 13-7 ATS, tied with Miami for the second-best cover percentage in the NFL.

• As a favorite, Green Bay has covered three straight games and four of its last five.

• Since the start of the 2019 season, Green Bay has gone 13-5 SU (11-7 ATS) on the road.

At 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, the Detroit Lions will face the Minnesota Vikings (-8).

• Since the start of last season, Minnesota has gone 1-6 ATS as a home favorite.

• With Kirk Cousins as quarterback, Minnesota is 5-1 ATS versus Detroit.

• Since the start of last season, Minnesota is 2-8 ATS as a favorite.

• In each of its past three road games, Detroit has failed to cover the spread.

The Denver Broncos will face the Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

• Teddy Bridgewater has a 38-15 ATS record in the NFL as a starter, including a 22-6 ATS record as an underdog.

• Drew Lock has a career ATS record of 11-7.

• Along with the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots, Denver and Pittsburgh are two of four teams who have gone under in every game this season.

• This season, Denver is 3-0 ATS against teams with losing records.

• Each of Pittsburgh’s last five games as a favorite have resulted in a loss.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10).

• Since the start of last season, Miami has gone 13-7 ATS, tied with Green Bay for the second-best cover percentage in the NFL.

• Following a straight-up defeat, Miami is 6-1 ATS since the start of last season.

• Since the beginning of last season, Miami has gone 5-1 ATS as a road underdog.

2 Related

• Under Brian Flores, Miami is 5-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog (all in 2019). He is, however, 5-1 ATS in his past six games and has won three of the last four outright. Flores has three outright victories as a double-digit underdog in the past ten seasons, which is tied for the most in the NFL (Adam Gase).

• Tom Brady has a career ATS record of 202-139-7, including the playoffs (.592).

• Tom Brady is 54-5 as a double-digit favorite in his career, but each of his past three defeats have come against Miami.

• Since becoming the head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bruce Arians is 4-8-1 ATS as a home favorite.

• This season, Miami has the lowest average cover margin in the NFL at -9.8.

Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, the New Orleans Saints (-1) take on the Washington Football Team.

• This season, the underdog has won every game in New Orleans.

• Each game’s final line has been at least 10 points off.

• Since the start of the 2016 season, New Orleans has gone 30-12 ATS on the road, the greatest cover percentage in the NFL.

• Over the same time period, it has three more road covers than any other NFL club.

• Since the start of the 2018 season, New Orleans is 12-4 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.

• Following a straight-up defeat, Sean Payton’s New Orleans is 48-26 ATS.

• All three of Taylor Heinicke’s starts this season have gone over the total, as have all four of his starts with the club, including last season’s playoff defeat.

The Tennessee Titans (-4) take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

• In Week 4, rookie quarterbacks went 4-1 ATS, bringing their season total to 5-11 ATS. Davis Mills was the lone rookie quarterback who did not cover in Week 4 versus Buffalo. When not playing fellow rookie quarterbacks, rookie quarterbacks are 4-10 ATS this season.

• Since the beginning of last season, Tennessee has gone 14-5-1 against the spread. Since Ryan Tannehill joined the club, the over has gone 23-6-1 in his regular season starts.

• Jacksonville has dropped 19 consecutive games and is 7-12 ATS during that time.

• Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS in the past two seasons when it is not at least a six-point underdog.

• Since Week 9 of 2010, it has gone 1-9 ATS in its past ten such games.

• As a home underdog, Jacksonville has failed to cover in each of its past four games.

The New England Patriots (-7.5) take on the Houston Texans at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

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• Along with Los Angeles, Denver, and Pittsburgh, New England is one of four teams this season to go under in every game.

• Following a straight-up defeat, New England is 57-31 ATS under Bill Belichick.

• This is the season’s lowest over/under (currently 40). 41.5 is the lowest total entering this week (done four times). When the total is 45 or less, the under is 15-5 this year (57-37-1 last 2 seasons). The previous time a total fell below 40 came in Week 12 of last season (36.5), when Denver was without a quarterback.

At 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, the Chicago Bears will face the Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5).

• In Week 4, rookie quarterbacks went 4-1 ATS, bringing their season total to 5-11 ATS. Davis Mills was the lone rookie quarterback who did not cover in Week 4 versus Buffalo. When not playing fellow rookie quarterbacks, rookie quarterbacks are 4-10 ATS this season.

• Since the start of last season, Las Vegas has a 15-5 over/under record, the highest in the NFL.

• Since the club relocated before last season, the over has gone 9-1 in Las Vegas home games.

• Since Jon Gruden took over as head coach in 2018, the club has gone 0-6 ATS as a favorite of at least 3.5 points (3-3 SU).

• As a favorite, Las Vegas has failed to cover in each of its last five games.

• As an underdog, Chicago has failed to cover in each of its last three games.

At 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, the Cleveland Browns will face the Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5).

• Since the start of the 2018 season, Los Angeles is 6-15-1 ATS as a home favorite.

• In his career, Justin Herbert is 4-5 ATS as a home favorite.

• Coach Kevin Stefanski of the Browns has a 5-2 ATS record as a road underdog, including the playoffs.

• Along with Denver, New England, and Pittsburgh, Los Angeles is one of four teams this season that has gone under in every game.

• Since the start of last season, Cleveland is 3-11 ATS versus AFC opponents.

At 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, the New York Giants will face the Dallas Cowboys (-7.5).

• Since the start of last season, New York has gone 14-5-1 against the spread, tied with New England for the greatest under percentage in the NFL.

• Since the start of the 2018 season, New York has gone 18-4 ATS as an away underdog.

• As a road underdog, Daniel Jones is 10-2 ATS (3-9 outright).

• This season, Dallas is the only club in the NFL to go unbeaten against the spread (4-0 ATS).

• Since the start of last season, Dak Prescott has a 4-5 ATS record as a starter. He went over the total in seven of his nine starts.

• Since the start of last season, Dallas is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite. During the same time period, Dallas is also 3-6 ATS as a favorite.

At 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers will face the Arizona Cardinals (-5).

• In Week 4, rookie quarterbacks went 4-1 ATS, bringing their season total to 5-11 ATS. Davis Mills was the lone rookie quarterback who did not cover in Week 4 versus Buffalo. When not playing fellow rookie quarterbacks, rookie quarterbacks are 4-10 ATS this season.

• Last year, the away underdog won both matches (both at least six-point underdogs).

• Since the start of 2019, San Francisco has gone 10-3 ATS on the road, including 8-2 ATS as a road underdog.

• San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan is 15-9 ATS as a road underdog.

• Kyle Shanahan has a 5-2-1 ATS record versus Arizona in his career.

• Under Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona is 2-6 ATS as a home favorite.

• In four of its last five games against NFC West opponents, Arizona has failed to cover the spread.

At 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday, the Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5).

• Since the start of last season, Buffalo has gone 14-6 ATS, the highest cover percentage in the NFL.

• Since the start of last season, Buffalo games have gone 14-8-1 to the over, including playoffs.

• When the line is between -3 and +3, Buffalo is 7-1 ATS since the start of last season.

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• During the regular season, Buffalo went 4-1 ATS as an underdog, but they did not cover as an underdog in the playoffs versus Kansas City.

• Buffalo has the greatest cover margin in the NFL at +13.9 per game.

• Kansas City is 3-12 ATS in its past 15 games, including playoffs, going back to last season. As a favorite, they’ve covered two of their previous 11 games.

• This season, Kansas City is 0-3 ATS against clubs with winning records.

• In a Patrick Mahomes home start, Kansas City has never been favored by fewer than three points.

• When not favored by at least 3.5 points, Patrick Mahomes is 9-1-1 ATS, including 3-1 ATS as a 1-3 point favorite.

• This is the highest total of the season thus far, at 56.5. It’s also the greatest point total in a Buffalo game in more than 35 years.

Monday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, the Indianapolis Colts take on the Baltimore Ravens (-7).

• Since 2018, the under has gone 26-18 in Carson Wentz starts, including the playoffs.

• This season, home teams are 4-0 ATS on Monday Night Football.

• As a home favorite, Baltimore has covered each of its last three games.

• Baltimore is 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season (both on road). In his career, Lamar Jackson is 12-8-1 ATS as a favorite of a touchdown or more.

The nfl week 5 scores is a blog post that includes the latest NFL betting nuggets.

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