Nobody’s Perfect. Nothing’s Impossible
I was watching the Fox Pregame show in advance of the Giants-Steelers game yesterday. Michael Strahan, a fantastic player and role model, was breaking down the Cowboys dysfunction. He said this (or close to it) “The Cowboys have a lot of talent, but they don’t have that one guy who can rally the troops. That one guys who’s running down the sidelines, saying we’re still in this, we can still win this.”
It hit a nerve, because I realized how pessimistic I’ve become about the election. One of the wonderful things that about sports is it teaches us, on a smaller scale, how to handle life’s challenges. They faced overwhelming odds, but in football as in life, 80% of it is just showing up. They showed up, and they fought their heart out and one the greatest upset in Super Bowl history. They proved that, in life as well as football, Nobody’s Perfect and Nothing’s Impossible.
So I’ll take a cue from my gap-toothed friend and take a more positive outlook on the election. In football, the most important game is the first Sunday in February. Once you get there, the only thing that matters is the final score. In politics, it’s the first Tuesday in November. The goal is the same: forget the past and make history.
So here is what we have going for us:
Obama’s true colors are beginning to show.
Obama is a good politician. It’s hard to survive the grinding, corrupt Chicago political machine without the cold-hearted blood lust that drives most politicians. But when you’re ahead 12 points in some polls, it becomes easier to let your guard down and let those independent voters see your true colors. Take, for example, the recent backing of Card Check (the Unionization Plan for America), the Fairness Doctrine (No Free Speech for You) and redistribution of wealth. This is why Joe the Plumber is getting so much play, as is the interview from 2001 where Obama expresses his regret that the Supreme Court has not imposed redistribution of wealth just as it imposed desegregation.
Obama is ahead in the polls, right?
As others have pointed out, the polls are somewhat suspect. Obama and McCain are getting the same support from their base (85-90%) and are splitting undecideds evenly (45% each). The only way Obama is leading by 12% is if you believe (as the pollsters apparently do), that there are up to 10% more Democrats than Republicans. Although Democrats historically have more registered voters (it helps when fictional registrations like “Jive Turkey” and “Mickey Mouse” are 99.99% Democrat), the largest disparity in recent history was about 5%, not 10%. That could mean that the polls are biased in Obama’s favor, meaning the polls that show Obama only up by 3% might be accurate (or even those might be too optimistic).
Overconfidence breeds complacency (voter edition).
Obama’s supporters are wildly overconfident. There is already a tendency of young, first-time voters to “forget” to actually vote. Obama leads in first time voters by something like 3-1. Every first time voter that doesn’t show up is 3 times more damaging to Obama than to McCain. If the polls show Obama leading by 12 points going into next week, not a lot of young voters will drag themselves out of bed to actually vote. On top of that, if you’re leading by 10 points in Ohio, voter fraud might seem unnecessary. ACORN staffers may actually be limited to one vote each. It could be another Dewey beats Truman morning next Wednesday.
McCain is still the safe choice.
I believe it was Mort Kondrake that said in mid September, that a minor to midsized economic crisis benefits Obama, but a major one benefits McCain. Since then, the crisis has gone from “probable bad year” to “possible depression.” (I don’t believe that, but perception is the issue). People have seen the Congress spend $700 billion of their money and the market continues to go down, losing over four times that in value. Most average voters don’t know or care what McCain or Obama did or said about the bailout, what they’re realizing is that Big Government can’t get us out of the ditch it dug. This benefits McCain in two ways: (1) he’s a check on Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid’s greedy, money grubbing ways and (2) he’s a calm, tested hand at the wheel. Obama is neither.
Americans are not that stupid.
Obama cannot be taken at his word that he will not raise taxes on the middle class. Anyone who believes that was either in diapers during the Clinton years or ought to be now. His credibility has taken on water and is listing more every day. Every cry of racism, every dodge and weave of tough questions, every “spread the wealth around”; every “they’re bitter and cling to religion and guns” comment slowly paints him as a and elitist, Chicagoland, race baiting, smooth talking, radical Marxist, anti-military, sit-on-the-pot-until-the-sewer-rats-bite-your-nuts-off, waffling, McGovernite he really is. I have faith that my fellow Americans will see through this facade and vote McCain.