Isn’t this a pretty picture? There is actually a website, ExpectMore.gov, that provides the Administration’s analysis of the effectiveness of its (and Congressionally mandated) programs. What a wonderful idea! It’s a damn good thing that accountability is dead, otherwise some of these programs might actually be at risk.
As described on the website, programs are either “Performing” or “Not Performing.” “Performing” programs are either “Effective,” “Moderately Effective” or “Adequate.”
“Effective” “is the highest rating a program can achieve. Programs rated Effective set ambitious goals, achieve results, are well-managed and improve efficiency.” Only 15% of Federal programs are rated “Effective”! 15%! Your government, as a whole, is batting .150! Notably, one of these programs is “Administering the Public Debt.” I guess “effective” is in the eye of the taxer.
The programs are analyzed under four criteria: Design (worth 20% of the total); Planning (10%); Management (20%) and Results (50%). This alone should tell you enough about your government: who cares if we can’t design it, plan it or manage it, as long as we get half-assed results. (As an aside: what difference, if any, is there between design and planning?).
Judging from the Program Assessment Rating Tool file, the following conversion formula is used to go from a weighted average of each category to Effective, Moderately Effective, etc.
Category
|
Weighted
Average Range
|
Effective |
More than 85%
|
Moderately Effective |
85% - 70%
|
Adequate |
70% - 50%
|
Results Not
Demonstrated* |
Less than 50%
|
Ineffective* |
Less than 50%
|
*Results Not Determined and Ineffective seem to require a mix of the weighted average and some maximum “Results” percentage. You will notice some RND’s sprinkled among the Ineffectives and Adequates.
You may notice that a program can achieve nearly no results and still be deemed “Adequate” under this rating system. For example, the FBI Counterterrorism Program has a “Results” rating of 33%. (That will make you sleep well). But, because it is so well designed (100%!), planned (86%) and managed (86%), it has an overall rating of “Adequate.” Of course, we can’t hold our bureaucrats responsible if those pesky terrorists keep disrupting our well designed, planned and managed attempts to catch them.
Other surprisingly “Adequate” programs are Immigration and Customs Enforcement - Office of Investigations (bang up job on the borders, boys!); FEMA’s Emergency Response (no kidding, “management” is rated as 100%); The Astronaut Death Trap, formerly known as the Space Shuttle (note the 86% rating for “Design”); and my personal favorite: Transportation Security Administration: Screener Training (100% for “Design” and “Planning,” 86% for “Management” and a whopping 13% on “Results”).
Obviously, “Adequate” programs just aren’t. So rejiggering (it’s a scientific term) the data, let’s look at just “Effective” and “Moderately Effective” Programs. You’ll note that in order to be “Effective”, you need to have a “Results” rating of at least 30% (assuming you hit 100% in all other categories). Similarly, to be “Moderately Effective,” you need to achieve at least 20% results.
In order to make the data a bit more practical, I have also assigned each program a general category. I did this quickly as there are nearly 800 programs analyzed, so there may be some that are mischaracterized. The categories are:
Category
|
Type of Program
|
Number of Programs
|
Admin |
These are programs that the government runs because the government runs. Printing money, constructing federal buildings, taking the census, and administering itself. |
67 |
Direct Subsidies |
These are the worst form of waste, especially in a capitalist society. These are direct subsidies (including loans and guarantees) on otherwise commercially viable projects. Think ethanol. |
70 |
Education |
These are educational programs (including direct subsidies relating to education and unfunded mandates). |
79 |
Environmental |
Pet causes, sometimes literally. These range from the Corps of Engineer’s Flood Damage Reduction (”Results Not Demonstrated”) to pollution controls. |
142 |
Foreign Affairs |
The one category on this list that is reserved solely for the federal government under the Constitution. Interaction with foreign governments and people. |
31 |
Licensing & Inspection |
This is government’s role in ensuring we don’t die of unnatural causes and our banks do not collapse from fiscal crises. |
28 |
Research |
Direct and indirect (funded) research on all sorts. This includes things like NASA and DOE’s high energy physics programs. |
39 |
Tax & Law Enforcement |
Taking our money and enforcing the laws. (As we shall see, more of the former than of the latter.) |
57 |
War & National Security |
Fairly straightforward, keeping the Hun at bay, whether at home or abroad. |
102 |
Welfare |
Programs that address the general welfare of the people. Sometimes also known as “pork.” These include programs like the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., Administration for the Aging, medicare and government housing programs. |
179 |
So now, the fun bit. How does the government do in each of these categories? “Not well” is an understatement:
(Click on the image for a larger version.) Keep in mind, this is all based on the government’s own assessment.
You will notice that the government seems to be doing surprisingly well in Research and reasonably well in exercising its war powers and administering itself. The federal government, remarkably, also seems to be fairly good at licensing and inspection. Notwithstanding all that praise, there is only one category where the goverment is “Effective” more often than not. It is surprising that this is in the area of Research. Perhaps the rocket scientists have found a way to make the bureacracy marginally competent. More likely, as a good friend points out (hat tip Sturm), this is probably because most of the research is funded indirectly and not done by government bureaucrats.
On the other side, the federal government is woefully ill-equiped to deal with Education, the Environment and the General Welfare. Hmm. I wonder if we shouldn’t put something in the Constitution to reserve those powers to the individual States.
Finally, the government is shockingly bad (by its own admission, keep in mind) at collecting taxes and enforcing laws. I’m sure some moron in Congress would explain that they can’t enforce the laws with so little in the treasury. My answer: stop doing shit you’re not good at, not qualified for and prohibited from doing. And do we need any more evidence that subsidies just don’t work? 4% Effective. 4%!!
To sum up the data, the majority of federal goverment programs are not even moderately effective. I don’t know what you plan to do about it, but I’m moving to Iowa and joining a militia.