I have noted before that Hillary does not want the V.P. spot on Barack Obama’s presidential ticket. She wants, more than anything, the nomination for herself. Failing that, she wants Obama to fail miserably, either in November so she can challenge President McCain or, less ideally, as president, so she can challenge Obama for the nomination (ala Reagan v. Ford). In any case, joining the ticket aligns her with him, and you don’t tie yourself to your opponent voluntarily.
So, what is her end game? I continue to believe she will take the nomination fight to the convention. She still has her ploy in “making every vote count” in Florida and Michigan (she mentioned suffrage and disenfranchisement three times in her speech last night). Now, she can add the V.P. stakes as another reason to take the fight to Denver and prolong the battle (and thereby weaken Obama). Here’s how:
Hillary will spend the next few weeks (there are about 12 weeks until the convention begins) privately and not-so privately through surrogates, coercing Obama to offer her the V.P. spot. If he offers her the spot (which will make him appear weak and will tarnish his “Change” message), she will haggle over details or make unacceptable conditions, dragging out the process as long as possible. In the end, she will either make him look impossibly weak or continue the fight to the convention.
If he refuses, or even more inflammatory, if Obama dares to pick his own running mate, she will continue to press her supporters to “draft Hillary” as V.P. She will (behind the scenes) arrange for a floor vote on the Vice Presidential nomination (and, depending on how offensive his pick is, possibly contest the presidential nomination as well). (Maureen Dowd has already reported that Clinton has requested a roll call vote, which the Obama camp rejects as a possible trick!). As Bob Beckel pointed out, if she forces a vote for V.P., a lot of superdelegates will have to vote for her, even if they went for Obama at first. She only needs about 10% defections to pull it off.
Assuming Hillary wins the V.P. floor vote, she will, magnanimously decline to serve as V.P. “Barack Obama is our nominee for president,” she will screech over boos from her own supporters, “and he clearly does not want me to serve in his administration. In the interest of party unity, I therefore decline the nomination for Vice President.”
Barack Obama then goes on to get hammered by the Reagan Democrats who see him as rejecting their candidate. President McCain is sworn in and we get four more years of lower taxes and dead terrorists. Hillary can then jump back in for the 2012 cycle, which will begin in just three short years.